Brasil: CNI projeta desemprego em 14,6% em 2021

© Folhapress / Ronny Santos

Segundo projeção da Confederação Nacional da Indústria (CNI), a proporção de desempregados poderá alcançar seu maior nível em 2021, com taxa de desocupação média de 14,6%.

O comunicado divulgado nesta segunda-feira (22) pela CNI também sustenta que a recuperação da atividade econômica começará em maio. Porém, os efeitos da retomada no mercado de trabalho devem iniciar somente no início do segundo semestre.

“A taxa de desocupação deve crescer e registrar um novo recorde no segundo trimestre”, afirmou a entidade.

A publicação sustenta que com as pessoas voltando a procurar emprego, a taxa de desocupação média de 2021 será de 14,6%, superior aos 13,5% observados na média de 2020, projetou a CNI.

A CNI entende que o aumento de casos da COVID-19 e suas consequências deverão provocar uma queda na atividade econômica e a interrupção das contratações.

Neste sentido, a relação entre a dívida bruta do setor público e o PIB em 2021 deve alcançar o patamar de 91,1%, contra os 89% do PIB no ano passado. Isso significa que o endividamento público deverá subir.

“A CNI estima que as despesas relacionadas à pandemia fiquem em torno de R$ 84 bilhões, em 2021”, projetou a entidade.

Diante das incertezas sobre a evolução da pandemia e quais medidas econômicas serão adotadas, a CNI estimou três possíveis caminhos para o crescimento da atividade brasileira em 2021. O PIB poderá ter alta de 3%, e a indústria crescerá 4,3%.

A previsão de o PIB crescer 3% neste ano considera que a atividade econômica inicia uma recuperação em maio, depois de uma queda de 7,2% em março e abril.

Em um cenário pessimista, a CNI considera que o PIB poderá ter um desempenho fraco em 2021, crescendo apenas 0,6%, com uma alta de 1,3% do PIB Industrial.

Nesse caso, a entidade leva em conta que uma piora significativa da situação sanitária obrigará os entes públicos a endurecer as medidas de distanciamento social. Com isso, projeta-se uma retração de 11,8% da atividade em março e abril.

 

Fonte: Sputnik Brasil

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