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Assim, caso não surja nenhuma vacina nova nos próximos meses, o isolamento se estenderá pelo segundo semestre.

JornalGGN Qualquer cenário econômico tem que partir da análise básica: quanto tempo irá dura o isolamento social. É o ponto central. Esse ponto de partida é que definirá o tamanho da recessão pela frente, o prazo em que a economia irá se recuperar, os problemas de desemprego, tensão social e política.

Os indicadores não sugerem vida fácil pela frente. Os erros na condução das políticas de saúde e economia tornaram o Brasil o país mais vulnerável do mundo, ao lado dos Estados Unidos – não por coincidência, ambos presididos por políticos negacionistas e sem nenhuma empatia com o destino de seus cidadãos.

No resumo de ontem, a média diária semanal de novos casos se mantém em 1% ao dia, ou 35% ao mês. Em relação aos óbitos diários, a alta chegou a 25,7% ao dia.

O cenário mais provável é o seguinte:

  1. Período de flexibilização em curso.
  2. Retomada da curva de casos notificados.
  3. No momento seguinte, aumento de óbitos como consequência do aumento de casos.
  4. Recuo dos governadores, em relação ao isolamento, em um vai-e-vem que estenderá por meses o prazo de combate ao Covid-19.

Assim, caso não surja nenhuma vacina nova nos próximos meses, o isolamento se estenderá pelo segundo semestre.

As estatísticas atuais mostram os seguintes números:

Na curva de casos por 100 mil habitantes, Brasil e Estados Unidos continuam em franca ascensão.Como previsto aqui, nos últimos dias, a maioria dos Estados registrava alta de casos. Depois da onda de casos, vem a onda de óbitos. Ontem, na média dos últimos 7 dias, em 15 Estados havia alta de óbitos, contra 9 em queda, e o restante estável.Nos quadros, a situação de 4 estados. São Paulo e Rio de Janeiro, onde a Covid começou, continuam registrando elevação nas ocorrência – especialmente São Paulo. Abaixo, Distrito Federal e Goiás, dois estados em que os governadores flexibilizaram a quarentena e, logo em seguida, houve aceleração do crescimento, exigindo novo isolamento.
Esse quadro é agravado pela absoluta incompetência de Paulo Guedes em fazer dinheiro chegas às pequenas e micro empresas. Até agora, cumpriu um roteiro de erros sobre erros.

  1. Liberou reservas para os bancos supondo que iriam conceder crédito. O crédito foi apropriado por grandes empresas, com mais garantias. Sem perspectiva sobre o prazo de retomada da economia, e sobre as empresas que sobreviviriam, o dinheiro não saiu. Pelo contrário, as exigências pedidas passaram a ser muito mais severas.
  2. Os bancos passaram a montar um filtro inverso. Passaram a recusar crédito especial para as pequenas empresas mais saudáveis, para mantê-las em suas linhas tradicionais de crédito, a juros elevados.
  3. Depois de três meses, e milhares de CNPJs desaparecidos, anuncia uma linha de baixo custo, com o BNDES bancando parte do risco. Vai apenas acelerar a lógica de sonegar recursos para os melhores clientes e não emprestar para os piores.
Leia também:  Os economistas iluministas e a hipocrisia fiscal, por Luis Nassif

Nos próximos meses, à multidão de desempregados e vulneráveis, se somarão milhares de pequenos empresários jogados na rua pela política genocida de Bolsonaro-Guedes.

Há dois cenários pela frente. O cenário mais otimista será com a queda rápida de Bolsonaro e sua substituição por um governo de conciliação nacional.

A demora em sua queda aumentará a tensão social, política, abrindo espaço para qualquer autoritário mais talentoso que Bolsonaro.

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