Isolamento pode ter evitado até 120 mil mortes por covid-19 na Europa

Modelos matemáticos apontam que distanciamento social fez ritmo de disseminação do coronavírus diminuir. Pesquisadores britânicos analisaram dados de 11 países, incluindo Alemanha, França, Espanha e Itália.

    
Pessoas mantêm distância em fila de supermercado em Granada, na EspanhaPessoas mantêm distância em fila de supermercado em Granada, na Espanha

As medidas de distanciamento social para retardar e reduzir a disseminação do coronavírus Sars-Cov-2 em países europeus podem ter evitado entre 21 mil e 120 mil mortes até o final de março, aponta uma análise preliminar de pesquisadores do Imperial College London, publicada nesta segunda-feira (30/03).

Os pesquisadores analisaram o impacto de “intervenções não farmacêuticas”, incluindo isolamento de infectados, fechamento de escolas e universidades, banimento de reuniões de massa e eventos públicos e, mais recentemente, o distanciamento social.

Foram utilizados dados diários em tempo real do Centro Europeu de Controle de Doenças (ECDC, na sigla em inglês) sobre o número de mortes em 11 países: Áustria, Bélgica, Dinamarca, França, Alemanha, Itália, Noruega, Espanha, Suécia, Suíça e Reino Unido.

Os modelos gerados pelos pesquisadores apontam que mudanças na taxa básica de reprodução – número médio de novas infecções geradas por cada infectado – são uma resposta imediata a essas intervenções. De forma geral, os modelos matemáticos mostram que os países conseguiram reduzir a taxa.

Se a taxa básica de reprodução for maior do que 1, uma pessoa infectada passa a doença a pelo menos mais uma pessoa – ou seja, o vírus se propaga. Se for menor do que 1, isso significa que cada vez menos pessoas são infectadas, e o número total de contaminados diminui.

Segundo Neil Ferguson, professor de biologia matemática do Imperial College e um dos autores do relatório, a análise mostra que as intervenções que os países europeus implementaram reduziram significativamente o ritmo de disseminação do coronavírus, causador da doença respiratória covid-19.

“No entanto, ainda não está claro se ou com que rapidez essas medidas farão com que o número de novos casos diminua. Os dados coletados nas próximas duas semanas serão cruciais para refinar nossa avaliação desse ponto-chave”, disse ao site do Imperial College.

O relatório reforça a conclusão de trabalhos anteriores, entre eles um artigo publicado na revista Science em 25 de março, que concluiu que “as medidas drásticas de controle implementadas na China mitigaram substancialmente a expansão da covid-19”.

Samir Bhatt, professor sênior da Escola de Saúde Pública do Reino Unido e um dos autores do estudo do Imperial College, disse haver evidências sólidas de que as medidas de isolamento começaram a funcionar e achataram a curva.

“Acreditamos que um grande número de vidas foram salvas. No entanto, é muito cedo para dizer se conseguimos controlar totalmente as epidemias”, afirmou ao site do Imperial College.

Apesar de reconhecerem os impactos das intervenções no menor número de mortes, os pesquisadores ressalvam que, de forma geral, ainda não é possível concluir se as intervenções atuais são o bastante para fazer a taxa de reprodução cair para menos de 1.

“Ainda existe um alto nível de incerteza nessas estimativas. É muito cedo para detectar substanciais impactos da intervenção em muitos países que estão nos estágios iniciais de suas epidemias. Muitas intervenções ocorreram apenas recentemente, e seus efeitos ainda não foram totalmente observados devido ao intervalo de tempo entre infecção e morte”, diz o relatório.

LL/ots

______________

A Deutsche Welle é a emissora internacional da Alemanha e produz jornalismo independente em 30 idiomas. 

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